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IFs Bibliography

Alcamo, Joseph, Rik Leemans and Eric Kreileman, eds. 1998. Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century: Results from the IMAGE 2.1 Model. The Netherlands: Pergamon.

Alcamo, Joseph. 1994. IMAGE 2.0: Integrated Modeling of Global Climate Change. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Alexandratos, Nikos, ed. 1995. World Agriculture: Towards 2010 (An FAO Study). New York: FAO and John Wiley and Sons.

Allen, R. G. D. 1968. Macro-Economic Theory: A Mathematical Treatment. New York: St. Martin's Press.

Avery, Dennis. 1995. "Saving the Planet with Pesticides," in The True State of the Planet, ed. Ronald Bailey. New York: The Free Press, pp. 50-82.

Bailey, Ronald, ed. 1995. The True State of the Planet. New York: The Free Press.

Barbieri, Kathleen. 1996. "Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict?" Journal of Peace Research 33: 29-50.

Barker, T.S. and A.W.A. Peterson, eds. 1987. The Cambridge Multisectoral Dynamic Model of the British Economy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Barney, Gerald O., W. Brian Kreutzer, and Martha J. Garrett, eds. 1991. Managing a Nation, 2nd ed. Boulder: Westview Press.

Barro, Robert J. 1997. Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.

Barro, Robert J. and Xavier Sala-i-Martin. 1999. Economic Growth. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.

Bennett, D. Scott, and Allan Stam. 2003. The Behavioral Origins of War: Cumulation and Limits to Knowledge in Understanding International Conflict. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press

Birg, Herwig. 1995. World Population Projections for the 21st Century. Frankfurt: Campus Verlag.

Borock, Donald M. 1996. "Using Computer Assisted Instruction to Enhance the Understanding of Policymaking," Advances in Social Science and Computers 4, 103-127.

Bos, Eduard, My T. Vu, Ernest Massiah, and Rodolfo A. Bulatao. 1994. World Population Projections 1994-95 Edition [editions are biannual] Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press.

Boulding, Elise and Kenneth E. Boulding. 1995. The Future: Images and Processes. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.

Brecke, Peter. 1993. "Integrated Global Models that Run on Personal Computers," Simulation 60 (2).

Bremer, Stuart A. 1977. Simulated Worlds: A Computer Model of National Decision-Making. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Bremer, Stuart A., ed. 1987. The GLOBUS Model: Computer Simulation of World-wide Political and Economic Developments. Boulder, CO: Westview.

Bremer, Stuart A. and Walter Gruhn. 1988. Micro GLOBUS: A Computer Model of Long-Term Global Political and Economic Processes. Berlin: edition sigma.

Bremer, Stuart A. and Barry B. Hughes. 1990. Disarmament and Development: A Design for the Future? Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.

Brockmeier, Martina and Channing Arndt (presentor). 2002. Social Accounting Matrices. Powerpoint presentation on GTAP and SAMs (June 21). Found on the web.

Brown, Lester R. 1981. Building a Sustainable Society. New York: W.W. Norton.

Brown, Lester R. 1988. "Analyzing the Demographic Trap," in State of the World 1987, eds. Lester R. Brown and others. New York: W.W. Norton, pp. 20-37.

Brown, Lester R. 1995. Who Will Feed China? New York: W.W. Norton.

Brown, Lester R. 1996. Tough Choices: Facing the Challenge of Food Scarcity. New York: W.W. Norton.

Brown, Lester R., et al. 1996 State of the World 1996. New York: W.W. Norton.

Brown, Lester R., Nicholas Lenssen, and Hal Kane. 1995. Vital Signs 1995. New York: W.W. Norton.

Brown, Lester R., Christopher Flavin, and Hal Kane. 1996. Vital Signs 1996. New York: W.W. Norton.

Burkhardt, Helmut. 1995. "Priorities for a Sustainable Civilization," unpublished conference paper. Department of Physics, Ryerson Polytechnic University, Toronto, Canada.

Bussolo, Maurizio, Mohamed Chemingui and David O’Connor. 2002. A Multi-Region Social Accounting Matrix (1995) and Regional Environmental General Equilibrium Model for India (REGEMI). Paris: OECD Development Centre (February). Available at

British Petroleum Company. 1995. BP Statistical Review of World Energy. London: British Petroleum Company.

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). 1991. Handbook of Economic Statistics, 1991. Washington, D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency.

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). 1994. The World Factbook 1994. Washington, D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency.

Chang, Sheldon S. L. 1961. Synthesis of Optimum Control Systems. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Chenery, Hollis and Moises Syrquin. 1975. Patterns of Development 1950-1970. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Cipolla, Carlo M. 1962. The Economic History of World Population. Baltimore: Penguin.

Cook, Earl. 1976. Man, Energy, Society. San Francisco: W.H. Freeman.

Committee on the Strategic Assessment of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Coal Program. 1995. Coal: Energy for the Future. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1981. The Global 2000 Report to the President. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.

Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1981b. Environmental Trends. Washington, D.C. (July).

Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1991. 21st Annual Report. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.

Crescenzi, Mark J.C. and Andrew J. Enterline. 2001. "Time Remembered: A Dynamic Model of Interstate Interaction," International Studies Quarterly 45, no. 3 (September): 409-431.

Crosson, Pierre, and Jock R. Anderson. 1992. Resources and Global Food Prospects. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. World Bank Technical Paper Number 184.

Cusack, Thomas R. and Richard J. Stoll. 1990. Exploring Realpolitik: Probing International Relations with Computer Simulation. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.

Dargay, Joyce and Dermot Gately. 1999. "Income’s Effect on Car and Vehicle Ownership, Worldwide: 1960-2015," Transportation Research Part A 33: 101-138.

Dall, P., Kaspar, F. and Alcamo, J. 1998. "Modeling World-wide Water Availability and Water Use Under the Influence of Climate Change," Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Climate and Water, July 17-20, Espoo, Finland.

Dimaranan, Betina V. and Robert A. McDougall, eds. 2002. Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 5 Data Base. Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University. Available at

Dowlatabadi, H., and Morgan, M.G. 1993. "A Model Framework for Integrated Studies of the Climate Problem," Energy Policy (March): 209-221.

Duchin, Faye. 1998. Structural Economics: Measuring Change in Technology, Lifestyles, and the Environment. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.

Edwards, Stephen R. 1995. "Conserving Biodiversity," in The True State of the Planet, ed. Ronald Bailey. New York: The Free Press, pp. 212-265.

Edmonds, J., and Reilly, J.M. 1985. Global Energy: Assessing the Future. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

Edmonds, J., Pitcher, H. Rosenberg, N., and Wigley, T. "Design for the Global Change Assessment Model." Integrative Assessment of Mitigation, Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change. Laxenburg, Austria.

Ehrlich, Paul R. and Anne H. Ehrlich. 1972. Population, Resources, Environment. San Francisco: W.H. Freeman.

Eicher, Carl. 1982. "Facing up to Africa's Food Crisis," Foreign Affairs 61, no. 1 (Fall): 151-74.

Eberstadt, Nicholas. 1995. "Population, Food, and Income," in The True State of the Planet, ed. Ronald Bailey. New York: The Free Press, pp. 8-47.

Esty, Daniel C., Jack A. Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr, Barbara Harff, Marc Levy, Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Pamela T. Surko, and Alan N. Unger. 1998. State Failure Task Force Report: Phase II Findings. Volume provided courtesy of Ted Robert Gurr.

Flavin, Christopher. 1996. "Facing Up to the Risks of Climate Change," in Lester R. Brown and others, eds., State of the World 1996 (New York: W.W. Norton), pp. 21-39.

Forrester, Jay W. 1968. Principles of Systems. Cambridge, Mass: Wright-Allen Press.

Gilpin, Robert. 1981. War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Globerman, Steven. 2000 (May). Linkages Between Technological Change and Productivity Growth. Industry Canada Research Publications Program: Occasional Paper 23.

Grant, Lindsey. 1982. The Cornucopian Fallacies. Washington, D.C.: Environmental Fund.

Griffith, Rachel, Stephen Redding, and John Van Reenen. 2000. Mapping the Two Faces of R&D: Productivity Growth in a Panel of OECD Industries. Institute for Fiscal Studies (January)

Gwartney, James and Robert Lawson with Dexter Samida. 2000. Economic Freedom of the World: 2000 Annual Report. Vancouver, B.C.: the Fraser Institute.

Hammond, Allen. 1998. Which World? Scenarios for the 21st Century. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.

Harff, Barbara, with Ted Robert Gurr and Alan Unger. 1999. Preconditions of Genocide and Politicide: 1955-1998. Paper prepared for the State Failure Task Force and provided courtesy of Barbara Harff and Ted Gurr.

Henderson, Hazel. 1996. "Changing Paradigms and Indicators: Implementing Equitable, Sustainable and Participatory Development," in Jo Marie Griesgraber and Bernhard G. Gunter, Development: New Paradigms and Principles for the 21st Century. East Haven, CT: Pluto Press, pp. 103-136.

Herrera, Amilcar O., et al. 1976. Catastrophe or New Society? A Latin American World Model. Ottawa: International Development Research Centre.

Hoekstra, A.Y. 1998. Perspectives on Water: An Integrated Model-Based Exploration of the Future. Utrecht, the Netherlands: International Books.

Hughes, Barry B. 1980. World Modeling. Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books.

Hughes, Barry B. 1982. International Futures Simulation: User's Manual. Iowa City: CONDUIT, University of Iowa.

Hughes, Barry B. 1985a. International Futures Simulation. Iowa City: CONDUIT, University of Iowa.

Hughes, Barry B. 1985b. "World Models: The Bases of Difference," International Studies Quarterly 29, 77-101.

Hughes, Barry B. 1985c. World Futures: A Critical Analysis of Alternatives. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Hughes, Barry B. 1987. "Domestic Economic Processes," in Stuart A. Bremer, ed., The Globus Model: Computer Simulation of Worldwide Political Economic Development (Frankfurt and Boulder: Campus and Westview), pp. 39-158.

Hughes, Barry B. 1988. "International Futures: History and Status," Social Science Microcomputer Review 6, 43-48.

Hughes, Barry B. 1999. "The International Futures (IFs) Modeling Project. Simulation and Gaming Vol 30, No. 3 (September): 304-326.

Hughes, Barry B. 1999. International Futures, 3rd edition Boulder: Westview Press, 1999.

Hughes, Barry B. 2000. Continuity and Change in World Politics. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, fourth edition.

Hughes, Barry B. 2001. "Global Social Transformation: The Sweet Spot, the Steady Slog, and the Systemic Shift," Economic Development and Cultural Change 49, No. 2 (January): 423-458.

Hughes, Barry B. 2002. Theats and Opportunities Analysis. Living document prepared for the Strategic Assessments Group, Office of Transnational Issues, Central Intelligence Agency, August 2002.

Hughes, Barry B. and Anwar Hossain. 2003. Long-Term Socio-Economic Modeling: With Universal, Globally-Integrated Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) in a General Equilibrium Model Structure. IFs Project Living Document, University of Denver.

Huth, Paul. 1996. Standing Your Ground: Territorial Disputes and International Conflict. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.

Inglehart, Ronald. 1997. Modernization and Postmodernization: Cultural, Economic, and Political Change in 43 Societies. Ewing, NJ: Princeton University Press.

International Energy Agency (IEA). 1995. Oil, Gas, and Coal Supply Outlook. Paris: International Energy Agency.

International Energy Agency (IEA). 1996. World Energy Outlook. Paris: International Energy Agency.

International Energy Agency (IEA). 1996b. The Strategic Value of Fossil Fuels: Challenges and Responses. Paris: International Energy Agency.

International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1995. International Financial Statistics. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.

International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1995. World Economic Outlook. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 1995. Several volumes by various working groups. Published by Cambridge University Press.

Jansen, Karel and Rob Vos, eds. 1997. External Finance and Adjustment: Failure and Success in the Developing World. London: Macmillan Press Ltd.

Janssen, Marco. 1998. Modeling Global Change: The Art of Integrated Assessment Modelling. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.

Janssen, Marco. 1996. Meeting Targets: Tools to Support Integrated Modelling of Global Change. Den Haag: CIP-Gegevens Koninklijke Bibliotheek.

Jansson, Kurt, Michael Harris, Angela Penrose. 1987. The Ethiopian Famine. London: Zed Books Ltd.

Jeffreys, Kent. 1995. "Rescuing the Oceans," in The True State of the Planet, ed. Ronald Bailey. New York: The Free Press, pp. 296-338.

Jones, Daniel M., Stuart A. Bremer, and J. David Singer. 1996. "Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns," Conflict Management and Peace Science XV, No. 2: 163-215.

Khan, Haider A. 1998. Technology, Development and Democracy. Northhampton, Mass: Edward Elgar Publishing Co.

Kahn, Herman, William Brown, and Leon Martel. 1976. The Next 200 Years. New York: William Morrow.

Kalymon, Basil A. 1975. "Economic Incentives in OPEC Oil Pricing Policy." Journal of Development Economics 2: 337-362.

Kaplan, Robert. 1994. "The Coming Anarchy," The Atlantic Monthly 273 (February): .

Kaufmann, Daniel, Aart Kraay and Pablo Zoido-Lobaton. 1999a. "Aggregating Governance Indicators". World Bank Policy Research Department Working Paper No. 2195.

Kaufmann, Daniel, Aart Kraay and Pablo Zoido-Lobaton. 1999b. "Governance Matters". World Bank Policy Research Department Working Paper No. 2196.

Keepin, B. and B. Wynne. 1984. "Technical Analysis of the IIASA Energy Scenarios," Nature 312: 691-695.

Kehoe, Timothy J. 1996. Social Accounting Matrices and Applied General Equilibrium Models. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Working Paper 563.

Kennedy, Paul. 1993. Preparing for the Twenty-First Century. New York: Random House.

Klein, Lawrence R. and Fu-chen Lo, eds. 1995. Modeling Global Change. Tokyo: United Nations University Press.

Kornai, J. 1971. Anti-Equilibrium. Amsterdam: North Holland.

Kwasnicki, Witold and Halina Kwasnicka. 1996. "Long-Term Diffusion Factors of Technological Development: An Evolutionary Model and Case Study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change 52 (May): 31-57.

Leontief, Wassily, Anne Carter and Peter Petri. 1977. The Future of the World Economy. New York: Oxford University Press.

Levis, Alexander H., and Elizabeth R. Ducot. 1976. "AGRIMOD: A Simulation Model for the Analysis of U.S. Food Policies." Paper delivered at Conference on Systems Analysis of Grain Reserves, Joint Annual Meeting of GRSA and TIMS, Philadelphia, Pa., March 31-April 2.

Levis, Alexander, H., et al. 1977. Energy in Agriculture: On Modeling Inputs in AGRIMOD. Final Report to U.S. Department of Energy. Palo Alto: Systems Control, Inc., August, available through NTIS.

Lichbach, Mark Irving. 1989. "An Evaluation of ‘Does Economic Inequality Breed Political Conflict?," World Politics, Vol 41 , No. 4 (July 1989): 431-470.

Liverman, Dianne. 1983. The Use of Global Simulation Models in Assessing Climate Impacts on the World Food System. Dissertation, University of California, Los Angeles.

Londregan, John B. and Keith T. Poole. 1996. "Does High Income Promote Democrary?", World Politics 49, no. 1 (October): 1-30.

MacKenzie, James J. 1996. "Oil as a Finite Resource: When is Global Production Likely to Peak?" Paper of the World Resources Institute. Washington, D.C.: WRI.

Maddison, Angus. 1995. Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992. Paris: OECD.

Malthus, Thomas. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population as It Affects the Future Improvement of Society. London (reprinted many times).

Mansfield, Edward D. 1994. Power, Trade, and War. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Marchetti, Cesare, Perrin S. Meyer, and Jesse H. Ausubel. 1996. "Human Population Dynamics Revisited with the Logistic Model: How Much Can be Modeled and Predicted?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change 52 (May): 1-30.

Martens, Pim and Jan Rotmans, eds. 1999. Climate Change: An Integrated Perspective. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Martens, W.J.M. 1997. "Health Impacts of Climate Change and Ozone Depletion: An Eco-Epidemiological Approach," Maastricht, the Netherlands: Maastricht University.

Mason, Andrew. 1997. "The Role of Population Change in the Asian Economic Miracle," Honolulu, Hawaii: East-West Center, AsiaPacific Issues, No. 33 (October), 8 pages.

McMahon, Walter W. 1997. Education and Development: Measuring the Social Benefits. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

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Meadows, Donnela H., Dennis L. Meadows, and Jorgen Randers. 1992. Beyond the Limits. Post Mills, Vermont: Chelsea Green Publishing Company.

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Moore, Will H., Ronny Lindstrom, and Valerie O’Regan. 1996. "Land Reform, Political Violence and the Economic Inequality-Political Conflict Nexus: A Longitudinal Analysis," International Interactions 21, No. 4: 335-363.

Mori, Shunsuke and Masato Takahaashi, 1997. An Integrated Assessment Model for the Evaluation of New Energy Technologies and Food Production, accepted by International Journal of Global Energy Issues.

Naill, Roger F. 1977. Managing the Energy Transition. Vols. 1 and 2. Cambridge, Mass: Ballinger Publishing Co.

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