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International Futures Help System

Calorie Availability

Daily per capita calorie availability (CLPC) is initialized in the pre-processor. Where available, data is taken from the FAO [1] . It is multiplied by population (POP) to yield total daily calorie availability and brought into the model with the name CLAVAL. We already saw that this first year value is used in the calculation of two country-specific factors: 1) calactpredrat, which is a shift factor determined as the ratio of calorie availability to predicted calorie demand in the first year, and 2) sclavf, which is a conversion factor relating the total annual demand for food crops and crop equivalents from meat to daily calorie availability.

In the forecast years, CLAVAL depends upon the demand for food crops and meat, but also any shortages in crops or meat. The specific shortage is calculated as

ag equation 72

CLAVAL is then calculated as

ag equation 73

Calorie availability combines with regional calorie need in the population model for the calculation of possible starvation deaths (a seldom used variable because in official death statistics people do not die of starvation but rather of diseases associated with undernutrition); the population and health models therefore look instead to the impact of calorie availability on undernutrition and health.


[1] Note this occurs in DATAPOP, not DATAAGRI. The historic data series is SERIESCalPCap. Missing data are estimated based on access to water and sanitation or average income.