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Fish Demand

Currently IFs does not calculate calories from fish and determine that contribution to total calorie demand.  We anticipate that model extension in the future.

The calculation of fish demand (AGDEM, category 3) in the first year was described at the start of the Demand section as having the same apparent consumption approach as used for other agricultural demands (production plus imports minus exports and adjustment stocks). In the first year, a calculation is also made of fish demand per capita (fishdemipc), which is simply the ratio of AGDEM, category 3 to population (POP).

In the forecast year, fish demand per capita is assumed to grow with growth in average income, with some adjustments. First, predicted values for fish demand per capita are calculated as a function of income in the first and current year using the function depicted below [1] .

fish demand graph

The initial estimate of fish demand per capita is the value for the initial year (fishdemipc) multiplied by the ratio of the predicted value in the current year (tonspercap) to the predicted value in the first year (tonspercapi)

ag equation 32

Once the per capita demand exceeds 50 percent of the initial value, a new logic kicks in.

fishdempc is also not allowed to exceed the value in the first year or 0.1, whichever is larger.

Finally, total demand for fish is determined by multiplying the per capita value by the population (POP), with a price adjustment.

ag equation 33

[1] Equation is Fish Demand per Capita = 0.0121 + 0.00102*GDPPCP