Skip navigation

Pardee Logo International Futures at the Pardee Center

International Futures Help System

Converge Over Time Mechanism

In the development of IFs it has been found that there are many instances in which initial empirical conditions for values in specific countries vary considerably from what one might expect in the longer-term. In some instances, data may be faulty. In others, there may be disequilibria that appear unlikely to be maintained over time or cultural distinctiveness that appears likely to erode. Because immediate readjustment of such values would both violate the integrity of the data and, in many cases, create other discrepancies, such adjustment is rare in IFs. Instead, the modeling system uses a mechanism to facilitate convergence over time of the values to a target computation that appears a reasonable longer-term expectation. The mechanism is used with sufficient frequency that it is built into a function with the name ConvergeOverTime, and that name returns a value to the program when it is called with three parameters: a base value that comes from the empirical side (Base), a target value that comes from forecasting relationships (Target), and a number of years over which the model should interpolate between the base and the target, converging with the target over that period (Years to Converge).