International Futures Help System
Equations: Energy Infrastructure
Percentage of urban population with access to electricity
INFRAELECACC(urban) = percent of urban population with access to electricity in percentage
INCOMELT1CS = population with income less than $1.25 per day, cross sectional computation in millions
POP = total population in million persons
GOVEFFECT = government effectiveness using the World Bank WGI scale, shifting it 2.5 points so that it runs from 0-5 instead of from -2.5 to 2.5
- additive shift factor: INFRAELECACCShift(R%, Urban), downward shift over 500 years, upward shift over 50 years
- multiplier: infraelecaccm
- targeting parameters: infraelecacctrgtval, infraelecacctrgtyr, infraelecaccsetar, infraelecaccseyrtar
- value is not allowed to decline in the absence of a target or multiplier or lack of finance for maintenance
- cross-sectional data, GLM regression, R-squared = 0.68
Percentage of rural population with access to electricity
INFRAELECACC(rural) = percent of urban population with access to electricity in percentage
INCOMELT1CS = population with income less than $1.25 per day, cross sectional computation in millions
POP = total population in million persons
GOVEFFECT = government effectiveness using the World Bank WGI scale, shifting it 2.5 points so that it runs from 0-5 instead of from -2.5 to 2.5
- shift factor: INFRAELECACCShift(R%, Urban), downward shift over 500 years, upward shift over 50 years
- multiplier: infraelecaccm
- targeting parameters: infraelecacctrgtval, infraelecacctrgtyr, infraelecaccsetar, infraelecaccseyrtar
- value is not allowed to decline in the absence of a target or multiplier or lack of finance for maintenance
- cross-sectional data, GLM regression, R-squared = 0.77
Ratio of electricity use to total primary energy demand
where
ENELECSHRENDEM = ratio of electricity use to total primary energy demand, in percentage
GDPPCP = gross domestic product per capita at purchasing power parity in thousand constant 2005 dollars
INFRAELECACC(national) = percent of total population with access to electricity in percentage
FossilShare = ratio of fossil fuel production to total primary energy demand in base year, as a fraction
NonFossilShare= ratio of hydroelectric and renewable energy production to total primary energy demand in base year, as a fraction
ENP = energy production for oil, gas, coal, hydro, and other renewables in billion barrels of oil equivalent
ENDEM = total primary energy use in billion barrels of oil equivalent
- uses an extrapolative formulation: extmafuncenelecshr, extmaposnconvtimeenelecshr, extmaposnenelecshr
- no shift factor
- multiplier: enelecshrendemm
- value is not allowed to decline in the absence of a target or multiplier or lack of finance for maintenance
- cross-sectional data, OLS regression, R-squared = 0.65
As described in the flowchart for electricity the value of ENELECSHRENDEM is used to calculate the value of desired electricity use, given by INFRAELEC * POP, where INFRAELEC is electricity consumption per capita in kilowatt-hours and POP is total population in million persons. INFRAELEC is in initially calculated as:
INFRAELEC = electricity consumption per capita in kilowatt-hours
ENDEM = total primary energy use in billion barrels of oil equivalent
EnDemDFRI = a multiplicative shift factor based on the ratio of the actual energy consumption in physical units in the historical data to the apparent energy consumption calculated in the pre-processor as part of adjusting the physical data to match the financial data on energy imports and exports; this converges to a value of 1 over a number of years given by the parameter enconv
17,000 = the conversion factor from barrels of oil equivalent to kilowatt-hours
POP = total population in million persons
- an additional multiplicative shift factor, InfraElecRI, which converges over 40 years to a value of 1, is used to further adjust the estimate of INFRAELEC
Percentage of electricity lost in transmission and distribution
INFRAELECTRANLOSS = transmission and distribution loss as a percentage of total electricity production, in percentage
GDPPCP = gross domestic product per capita at purchasing power parity in thousand constant 2005 dollars
GOVEREGQUAL = government regulatory quality using the World Bank WGI scale, shifting it 2.5 points so that it runs from 0-5 instead of from -2.5 to 2.5
- uses extrapolative formulation: extmafuncelectran, extmaposnconvtimeelectran, extmaposnelectran
- additive shift factor: INFRAELECTRANLOSSShift, converges downward over 50 years, upward over 500 years
- multiplier: infraelectranlossm
- bound between 3 and 90
- pooled cross-sectional data, OLS regression, R-squared = 0.85
Percentage of population primarily using solid fuels for heating and cooking
ENSOLFUEL = ratio of electricity use to total primary energy demand, in percentage
GDPPCP = gross domestic product per capita at purchasing power parity in thousand constant 2005 dollars
INFRAELECACC(national) = percent of total population with access to electricity in percentage
- multiplicative shift factor: ENSOLFUELShift; never converges
- multiplier: ensolfuelm
- targeting parameters: ensolfuelsetar, ensolfueltrgtyr, ensolfuelsetar, ensolfuelseyrtar
- hold switch: ensolflhldsw, fixes value of ENSOLFUEL at initial year value
- cross-sectional data, GLM regression, R-squared = 0.81