Skip navigation

Pardee Logo International Futures at the Pardee Center

International Futures Help System


The outbreak of conventional war depends on the probability of war. The probability of war is converted into actual war randomly. The outbreak of nuclear war (only for countries with nuclear weapons) similarly depends probabilistically and randomly on the outbreak of conventional war. In order for a war to occur, the "waron" parameter must be turned on (set to 1). If it is turned on, wars may or may not occur; but a war can be forced if the waron parameter is set AND the war forcing switch (cwarf) is set to 100 or above).

We calculate damage for both conventional and nuclear power capabilities, as well as for civilian society (population and GDP).