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International Futures Help System

Opening IFs Base/Hist and Historic Variable Option

This is a crucial feature of the Full Variable/Parameter Selection screen. This allows users to work with empirical and forecasted variables most useful for historic validation.

Click on the Open IFsBaseHist to access this historic empirical data and the historic forecasts. It will take a moment to load all of the variables and parameters. When you have the variables loaded into the Display Box, you can begin looking at this historic data by clicking on Display. Some users find this feature helpful in creating large data sets that they can then export. When you are choosing a variable/parameter, choose World (in groups) or ALL (in country/region) as your geographic unit for display. This will load each country where data is available for the given parameter/variable into the Display Box. After clicking on Display and then Table, you can export this data to Excel.

Other users will find the ability to validate the model a useful aspect of the IFs Base/Hist. Users can compare forecasted variables against empirical variables from 1960-2000. This feature allows users to validate the model over different areas and different variables. Choose Select for Validation and begin comparing. The model can also be validated by choosing from History Variable Options. Choose Select from Forecasted Historic Variables and select a variable from the Type Name Box. Then, choose Select from Empirical Historic Variables and choose the same variable.

After the IFsBaseHistoric is opened, a new feature becomes available on the Self Managed Full Set of Variables/Parameters menu: Historic Variable Options. This includes the following:

*Note: When IFsBaseHist is opened, it will remain opened until users choose to re-open IFsBase.

Select from Forecasted Variables: This allows users to display variables that are forecasted from 1960-2000. The ability to forecast historic variables is helpful in the validation of the IFs model. It is possible to graphically display runs of the model against historic, empirical data. When this is selected, two run-files appear in the Files Available for Display box: 0 – Working File and 1 –

Select from Empirical Historical Variables: This allows users to display all empirical data that underpins the functioning of IFs. This data is taken from 1960-2000 where available and can be used to compare against forecasted historic data starting in 1960. When this option is selected, the run-file available in the Files Available for Display box changes to -1 History Data from IFS_HistSeries.MDB.

Select for Validation: This feature of IFs allows users to validate the efficacy of the model against empirical data starting in 1960. Selecting this option will open a dialogue box that asks you to choose a variable for validation. You will then be prompted to choose a forecasted variable for validation. After choosing two variables (make sure they you choose the same variable for historic and forecasted data), click on Display.

Open for Validation: Choosing this option allows users to open a validation file (.val) to use to assess the accuracy of the IFs model. After you have opened a file for validation, select Display, History and then Validation.