Contact: David Proper
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Report given to Obama administration to provide guidance on global trends
Researchers at the University of Denver's Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, part of the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, contributed substantial forecasts and analysis to the intelligence report, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, released by the U.S. National Intelligence Council on Monday.
The Global Trends report, which is published every four years, provides incoming or returning U.S. presidential administrations prospective analysis and scenarios as an aid for setting policy priorities both foreign and domestic. The reports receive wide global coverage and help to identify influential long-term global meta-trends.
"The Pardee Center provided foundational forecasts and analysis using the International Futures model for the authors of the report," said Jonathan Moyer, Ph.D., interim associate director of the Pardee Center for International Futures.
Analysis of the forecasts suggests that China and India are rapidly gaining relative power, and the United States and the European Union are declining. By 2030—using traditional measures of power—the United States and China will achieve power parity. However, using measures that privilege technology and human capital development, the United States will retain an advantage (though with the same downward overall trend). Diplomatic and institutional power will also continue to remain fundamentally important moving forward, and the West generally holds advantage in those areas.
Moyer explains, "Our model projects that the world in 2030 will be increasingly multi-polar and that the U.S. will have to rely more heavily on complex networks of alliances fostered through diplomatic connection and savvy use of technology to promote foreign policy objectives."
"The contribution of the Pardee Center to the Global Trends 2030 report highlights the important research taking place here at the University of Denver," said Christopher Hill, Dean of the Josef Korbel School of International Studies. "The innovative work taking place at the Pardee Center and the Josef Korbel School of International Studies truly impacts ideas at a global level."
Data from the Pardee Center for International Futures can be found throughout Global Trends 2030.
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