Skip navigation

Pardee Logo International Futures at the Pardee Center

International Futures Help System

Final Agricultural Demand Adjustments in Forecast Years

Two final adjustments are made to a number of the agricultural demand variables in the forecast years. First, if the total per capita calories from meat and crops exceed the maximum calories, i.e.

ag equation 47

then the demand for crops for food and the demand for meat in tons are scaled by the ratio of the maximum to the estimated calories

ag equation 48

Second, if the preliminary estimate of total food demand in monetary terms (csprelim), is too large of a share of consumption, i.e., if

ag equation 49


CSF is the ratio of consumer spending in the agricultural sector in the first year (CSr,s=1,t=1) to DemValr, a weighted sum of demands for agricultural products for food in the first year

ag equation 50

C is total household consumption in the first year

When this is the case, a series of steps are taken to bring these values back in line.

1. The necessary reduction (necreducr), which is in monetary terms, is calculated as csprelimr – 0.85*Cr

2. A reduction factor (reducfact) is calculated as

ag equation 51

with a maximum value of 1

3. The physical demands for crops for feed (FEDDEM), crops for industry (INDEM), and meat in tons (AGP, category 2) are all reduced by reducfact, and the value of the meat reduction is saved for the next step 

ag equation 52

4. An estimate of the necessary reductions in crops for food, in monetary terms is estimated by subtracting the savings obtained through the reduction in meat demand

ag equation 53

5. The physical demand for crops for food (FDEM) is then reduced as follows

ag equation 54

Note that this ensures that FDEM is not reduced by more than ninety percent.

Finally, given the changes above, the total demand for crops is recalculated as the sum of the final values of feed, industry, and food demand.

ag equation 55