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International Futures Help System


The calculation of poverty levels is fairly straightforward if one has the average level of consumption per capita (or income) and its distribution as indicated by the Gini index (and if one assumes that the distribution underlying the Gini index is log-normal). The internal calculation using those variables will, however, almost inevitably produce a rate of poverty at odds with the provided by national surveys. We therefore compute a ratio of those in the first year to allow adjustment in forecast years of the values from the lognormal calculation.

As a rough check on the values produced by lognormal calculation we also compute a value of poverty estimated from a cross-sectional function linking GDP per capita (and PPP) and Gini to rates of poverty.