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International Futures Help System

Diabetes and Chronic Respiratory Diseases


Two chronic cause groups, diabetes and respiratory, are so strongly influenced by specific risk factors that estimates based on distal drivers alone fail to accurately represent expected mortality rate trajectories.  In the case of diabetes, rising population levels of overweight and obesity contradict suggestions that diabetes-related mortality will fall over time in line with other Group II causes.  Conversely, declining smoking rates in many high income countries may temper projections of increasing chronic respiratory-related mortality (Protocol S1, 5-6).  Therefore, IFs follows the GBD methods in modifying the distal driver formulation by adding proximate risk factors (BMI and SI, respectively) to forecast base diabetes- and chronic respiratory-related mortality rates.