# International Futures Help System

## Equations: Energy Infrastructure INFRAELECACC(urban) = percent of urban population with access to electricity in percentage

INCOMELT1CS = population with income less than \$1.25 per day, cross sectional computation in millions

POP = total population in million persons

GOVEFFECT = government effectiveness using the World Bank WGI scale, shifting it 2.5 points so that it runs from 0-5 instead of from -2.5 to 2.5

• additive shift factor: INFRAELECACCShift(R%, Urban), downward shift over 500 years, upward shift over 50 years
• multiplier: infraelecaccm
• targeting parameters: infraelecacctrgtval, infraelecacctrgtyr, infraelecaccsetar, infraelecaccseyrtar
• value is not allowed to decline in the absence of a target or multiplier or lack of finance for maintenance
• cross-sectional data, GLM regression, R-squared = 0.68 INFRAELECACC(rural) = percent of urban population with access to electricity in percentage

INCOMELT1CS = population with income less than \$1.25 per day, cross sectional computation in millions

POP = total population in million persons

GOVEFFECT = government effectiveness using the World Bank WGI scale, shifting it 2.5 points so that it runs from 0-5 instead of from -2.5 to 2.5

• shift factor: INFRAELECACCShift(R%, Urban), downward shift over 500 years, upward shift over 50 years
• multiplier: infraelecaccm
• targeting parameters: infraelecacctrgtval, infraelecacctrgtyr, infraelecaccsetar, infraelecaccseyrtar
• value is not allowed to decline in the absence of a target or multiplier or lack of finance for maintenance
• cross-sectional data, GLM regression, R-squared = 0.77

### Ratio of electricity use to total primary energy demand where  ENELECSHRENDEM = ratio of electricity use to total primary energy demand, in percentage

GDPPCP = gross domestic product per capita at purchasing power parity in thousand constant 2005 dollars

INFRAELECACC(national) = percent of total population with access to electricity in percentage

FossilShare = ratio of fossil fuel production to total primary energy demand in base year, as a fraction

NonFossilShare= ratio of hydroelectric and renewable energy production to total primary energy demand in base year, as a fraction

ENP = energy production for oil, gas, coal, hydro, and other renewables in billion barrels of oil equivalent

ENDEM = total primary energy use in billion barrels of oil equivalent

• uses an extrapolative formulation: extmafuncenelecshr, extmaposnconvtimeenelecshr, extmaposnenelecshr
• no shift factor
• multiplier: enelecshrendemm
• value is not allowed to decline in the absence of a target or multiplier or lack of finance for maintenance
• cross-sectional data, OLS regression, R-squared = 0.65

As described in the flowchart for electricity the value of ENELECSHRENDEM is used to calculate the value of desired electricity use, given by INFRAELEC * POP, where INFRAELEC is electricity consumption per capita in kilowatt-hours and POP is total population in million persons. INFRAELEC is in initially calculated as: INFRAELEC = electricity consumption per capita in kilowatt-hours

ENDEM = total primary energy use in billion barrels of oil equivalent

EnDemDFRI = a multiplicative shift factor based on the ratio of the actual energy consumption in physical units in the historical data to the apparent energy consumption calculated in the pre-processor as part of adjusting the physical data to match the financial data on energy imports and exports; this converges to a value of 1 over a number of years given by the parameter enconv

17,000 = the conversion factor from barrels of oil equivalent to kilowatt-hours

POP = total population in million persons

• an additional multiplicative shift factor, InfraElecRI, which converges over 40 years to a value of 1, is used to further adjust the estimate of INFRAELEC

### Percentage of electricity lost in transmission and distribution INFRAELECTRANLOSS = transmission and distribution loss as a percentage of total electricity production, in percentage

GDPPCP = gross domestic product per capita at purchasing power parity in thousand constant 2005 dollars

GOVEREGQUAL = government regulatory quality using the World Bank WGI scale, shifting it 2.5 points so that it runs from 0-5 instead of from -2.5 to 2.5

• uses extrapolative formulation: extmafuncelectran, extmaposnconvtimeelectran, extmaposnelectran
• additive shift factor: INFRAELECTRANLOSSShift, converges downward over 50 years, upward over 500 years
• multiplier: infraelectranlossm
• bound between 3 and 90
• pooled cross-sectional data, OLS regression, R-squared = 0.85

### Percentage of population primarily using solid fuels for heating and cooking ENSOLFUEL = ratio of electricity use to total primary energy demand, in percentage

GDPPCP = gross domestic product per capita at purchasing power parity in thousand constant 2005 dollars

INFRAELECACC(national) = percent of total population with access to electricity in percentage

• multiplicative shift factor: ENSOLFUELShift; never converges
• multiplier: ensolfuelm
• targeting parameters: ensolfuelsetar, ensolfueltrgtyr, ensolfuelsetar, ensolfuelseyrtar
• hold switch: ensolflhldsw, fixes value of ENSOLFUEL at initial year value
• cross-sectional data, GLM regression, R-squared = 0.81